Highlights

• Rainbow Rare Earths has expanded its Phalaborwa resource estimate to include yttrium.
• Completion of a strategic SEG+ product basket covering all commercially important medium and heavy rare earths.
• Base-case NPV10 of US$611M.
• CEO George Bennett highlighted competitive advantages:
  • No mining required from phosphogypsum stacks (0.44% TREO).
  • Targeted 75% EBITDA margins.
  • 45% IRR and US$326M CAPEX.
  • First production expected in 2028.
• Trading at 19.5p (£126M market cap) after doubling from April lows.
• Stock reflects optimism but carries execution risk related to:
  • Offtake pricing.
  • CAPEX discipline.
  • Dependence on Western defense/EV demand for high-value heavy REEs.

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Rainbow Rare Earths (LSE: RBW) has updated the Phalaborwa Mineral Resource Estimate to include yttrium, confirming that its planned SEG+ product will carry commercial quantities of all the economically important medium and heavy rare earths: Sm, Eu, Gd, Dy, Tb and now Y, alongside NdPr.

The company leans hard on the latest USGS 2025 Critical Minerals List, highlighting that these elements sit in the highest risk tier for supply disruption – with Lynas still the only commercial heavy-REE producer outside China. Rainbow’s updated interim study pegs Phalaborwa’s base-case NPV10 at US$611m, with a chemically “pre-cracked” surface stockpile that should translate into lower opex versus hard-rock peers.

On paper, the yttrium-inclusive SEG+ basket is strategic, timely, and directly levered to China’s tightening export posture.

What George Bennett Told Rare Earth Exchanges

In our recent REEx interview (opens in a new tab), CEO George Bennett doubled down on Rainbow’s core narrative: grade, simplicity, and speed. Phalaborwa’s phosphogypsum stacks (0.44% TREO) and Uberaba’s 0.52% TREO compare favorably to many ionic clay projects, with no mining, drilling, or blasting and only trace U/Th – a genuine ESG and cost advantage versus many peers.

Bennett reiterated targeted EBITDA margins of ~75%, a 45% post-tax IRR, and CAPEX around US$326m, with optimization studies underway. U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC)-backed TechMet is slated to provide US$50m of equity (opens in a new tab); Rainbow expects roughly two-thirds project debt and first production in 2028, after a DFS now effectively sliding into 2026.

Strategically, Rainbow aims to deliver separated NdPr and a SEG+ stream, leaving mid-stream metal/alloy and magnet manufacturing to partners in the US, UK, EU, and Japan.

Stock Check: Re-Rated, But Not De-Risked

As of mid-November 2025, Rainbow’s shares trade around 19.5p, up sharply from ~9p lows in April, giving a market cap near £126m and sitting mid-range between 9p and 26.5p over 12 months. Technical services flag a short-term “buy candidate” in a rising trend, but with high volatility. Consensus analyst targets in the high-20s to low-30s imply roughly 40–70% upside, while fundamentals still show negative earnings and a double-digit P/B multiple – classic high-beta development-stage risk.

Unanswered Questions for Investors

Can Rainbow lock in premium “ex-China” pricing or floor-price style offtakes to justify its margin story if spot REE markets remain weak?

• Will CAPEX and timeline discipline hold as SX/CIX flowsheet choices are finalized and engineering risk crystallizes?
• How concentrated will project value be in a small number of high-value heavy REEs (Dy, Tb, Y) – and what happens if
• Western defence/EV demand slips or is delayed?
• Can Uberaba’s economics really surpass Phalaborwa’s, or is that still promotional until the full economic assessment is in the market?

REEx View

The latest entry and our interview support Rainbow’s claim to be a genuinely differentiated, circular-economy heavy-REE play. But at this valuation, the market is already paying for a good chunk of that future. Execution, offtake quality, and policy support will now matter more than slide decks.

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