Highlights

• 2025 marks a turning point for rare earth magnets with Chinese export controls and U.S. Department of Defense intervention.
• Projected 330,000-ton annual supply by 2036 and $9.19B market valuation align with e-mobility and wind energy trends.
• Government support remains optimistic, but actual magnet manufacturing ecosystem is still embryonic.

Parsing IDTechEx’s latest rare earth magnet forecast (opens in a new tab) for investors who want facts, not flash.

IDTechEx’s July 2025 press release touts this year as a turning point for the rare earth magnet market—and on many fronts, that’s not just spin. The report outlines how 2025 saw a rare trifecta: Chinese export controls on NdFeB and SmCo magnets, escalating tariff drama, and U.S. Department of Defense intervention. These events are real, documented, and undeniably jolted the magnet materials space. The $400M DoD support to MP Materials—including a price floor—has already been confirmed by public sources, and it’s shifting global dynamics.

What Holds Magnetic Truth?

The forecasted 330,000-ton annual supply by 2036 and a $9.19B market valuation align with broader e-mobility and wind energy projections. The emphasis on supply chain bottlenecks—particularly in heavy rare earths—is credible. And yes, China will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future, as virtually no nation (save Myanmar’s embattled output) can match its capacity for separated REEs and high-grade sintered magnets.

Beneath the Forecast: A Dose of Hype?

But let’s not gloss over the PR in this PRNewswire release. The term “defining year” gets tossed around like confetti, yet no real downstream magnet manufacturing ecosystem has emerged in the U.S. or EU as of Q3 2025. Public-private optimism is high—but actual production? Still embryonic.

The suggestion that government support “could be the catalyst” for new players needs tempering: even with subsidies, engineering IP, environmental permitting, and metallurgical expertise remain barriers. No mention is made of Japan’s ongoing dominance in high-end magnet metallurgy—or that recycling efforts remain commercially immature.

Final Pull: Hype Meets Headwinds                                                                                                           

The IDTechEx report is valuable for investors, but read it like a magnet test report—not a stock prospectus. The underlying data—regional forecasts, recycling projections, and material substitution trends—are solid. But the tone? Heavy on hope, light on caution.