Highlights

• China's current 62% global rare earth market share could shrink to 23% by 2040.
• New mining sources in Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland are challenging China's rare earth monopoly.
• Emerging global mining frontiers are expected to fundamentally reshape rare earth supply dynamics.

A study by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (opens in a new tab) (CAS) forecasts that China's dominance in the global rare earth industry could significantly decline within the next decade as new mining sources emerge worldwide. Published in the peer-reviewed journal Chinese Rare Earths (opens in a new tab), the research predicts that China's current 62% share of the global rare earth supply may shrink to 28% by 2035 and further to 23% by 2040, marking the end of its unparalleled control over the industry.

According to the study, mining frontiers in Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland are poised to reshape global supply chains, undermining China's stronghold, particularly in heavy rare earths. Greenland’s Kvanefjeld deposit, along with various South American projects, could challenge China's ion-adsorption clay production in southern China, historically a critical source of heavy rare earths reports South China Morning Post (opens in a new tab).

Conducted by researchers at the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy in Ganzhou (opens in a new tab), Jiangxi province, a major rare earth production hub, the study suggests that the world is on the cusp of a fundamental shift in rare earth supply dynamics, potentially ending China's long-standing monopoly.

However, as the Rare Earth Exchange has reported, China is only exploiting the rare earth monopoly to achieve a bigger end. They are in the value-added production phase (parts, assemblies, and components) and have marked control over key vertical sectors (electric vehicles, green energy, growing high-tech, and aerospace presence), with the aim of controlling a digital currency by the 2040s. By that point, it might not matter anymore.