Highlights

• Export Finance Australia offers up to $100M in conditional support for two Brazilian rare earth projects, but private lenders remain skeptical due to lack of proven commercial-scale processing capabilities.
• Banks require demonstration plants and price floor guarantees before committing capital, as China continues to dominate rare earth refining and poses competitive pricing risks.
• Development banks from multiple countries are stepping in as stopgap financiers, bridging a risk gap that private markets won't yet cross—signaling conditional progress rather than solved supply-chain challenges.

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Australia is helping two Australian companies explore rare earth projects in Brazil, but the support is limited and conditional. Government-backed lenders are stepping in because private banks still see the sector as risky. This is progress—but it is not proof that Brazil has solved its rare earth supply-chain challenge.

A Vote of Confidence—Not a Blank Check

A recent report from BNamericas highlights a notable move: Export Finance Australia (EFA) has issued letters of support signaling up to US$100 million in potential financing for Brazilian rare earth projects owned by Meteoric Resources and Viridis Mining and Minerals.

At first glance, this suggests growing momentum for Brazil’s long-discussed rare earth ambitions. Look closer, and the message is more cautious: private banks are still largely on the sidelines, and export credit agencies are being asked to absorb early risk.

What’s Real—and What’s Still Missing

Brazil holds the world’s second-largest rare earth resource base after China. What it lacks is far more important: a proven, commercial-scale processing and separation industry. Meteoric’s Caldeira project and Viridis’ Poços de Caldas project are among the most advanced attempts to close that gap. Together, they carry estimated capital costs of roughly US$660 million, well beyond what junior miners can fund alone.

EFA’s proposed support—up to US$50 million per project—is meaningful but limited. These are letters of support, not binding commitments, and they function primarily as credit signaling to other lenders, not full project finance.

Why Banks Are Still Hesitant

Viridis CEO Rafael Moreno was direct about lender concerns. Banks want two things before committing capital:

1. Proof of process, via a demonstration or pilot plant that shows the metallurgy works at scale; and
2. A price floor, to protect against market volatility and the risk of Chinese price pressure.

This caution reflects market reality. China continues to dominate rare earth refining and magnet production, and until Brazil proves it can process competitively—not just mine—capital discipline will prevail.

Development Banks as the Stopgap

EFA is not acting alone. France’s Bpifrance, Canada’s Export Development Canada, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and Brazil’s BNDES are all active around Brazilian rare earths. The pattern is clear: policy-backed capital is bridging a gap the private market is not yet willing to cross.

The Bottom Line for Investors

This is not a breakthrough—it is a stress test. Australia is using export finance to seed an ex-China rare earth pathway in Brazil, but the hardest work still lies ahead: processing scale, cost control, and true bankability. Investors should read this as conditional progress, not inevitability. Development banks can open doors; markets decide who walks through them.

Source: BNamericas, January 8, 2026

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