Highlights

• China controls over 91% of the global heavy rare earth element (HREE) supply, including dysprosium and terbium, which are essential for electric vehicle motors, defense systems, and high-temperature magnets.
• Western dependence on China's HREE supply is projected to remain above 90% through 2030.
• MP Materials' planned 200 tons per year HREE output and other Western projects face geological limits and mass-balance constraints, insufficient to meet the 1,650 tons per year dysprosium oxide demand by 2030.
• This creates a projected 2,920-ton deficit in dysprosium oxide by 2035.
• America's timeline of achieving rare earth independence within 24-36 months is contradicted by challenges such as geology, permitting delays, separation engineering maturity, and the dysprosium-terbium bottleneck, which remains unresolved.

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The latest reporting on Western efforts to break free from China’s heavy rare earth (HREE) grip reads like a race montage—lots of motion, very little distance covered. The headlines applaud MP Materials’ light rare earth output jump and the flurry of deals from magnet makers like VAC. Yet beneath the triumphant tone lies an uncomfortable truth: the numbers don’t work. Not in 24 months. Not in 36. And arguably not without a decade-scale industrial mobilization, the U.S. has not yet begun.

When Ambition Meets Arithmetic

Dysprosium and terbium are the thermally resilient “soul” of high-temperature NdFeB magnets. EV motors, drones, missiles, hypersonic guidance—none work without them. And here, the geopolitical math tightens like a vise.

China controls 91%+ of global HREE supply today, and even in 2030, Western analysts expect that dependence to remain above 90%, less some drastic changes—including an Operation Warp Speed  for critical minerals/rare earth elements moment.

MP Materials’ planned 200 t/y of SEG-derived heavies? Our analysis shows that even assuming full success, the effective dy/tb yield is limited by Mountain Pass’s geology: <1.8% M+HREO in situ, and stockpiled concentrate containing only 4% Dy/Tb. That’s not sufficient feedstock—it’s more a rounding error in a global market requiring 1,650 t/y of dysprosium oxide by 2030 for Western magnet capacity alone. True MP Materials has informed Rare Earth Exchanges of their heavy rare earth element confidence. 

But scarcity, project delays, price distortions, and environmental constraints are real factors to monitor.  Some predictions suggest a 2,920-ton HREE deficit by 2035. This is a gulf, not a gap.

Hope as Strategy? A Risky Default

Upbeat news may point out that deals in Brazil, Malaysia, or Canada will materialize on schedule; that ionic clay extraction outside China can scale cheaply; that regulatory approvals for Lynas or Iluka will land cleanly; that recycling can meaningfully replace primary feedstock.

These are not hard facts—they are hopeful narratives. And hope is not a supply chain.

The Real Story: A Clock That’s Already Run Out

What’s notable—and troubling—is how the West continues to frame this as a matter of coordination rather than hard physical limits. America’s suggestion in some circles of a 24–36 month goal to achieve rare earth independence is already contradicted by geology, chemistry, permitting timelines, separation engineering maturity, and the simple mass-balance of available dysprosium and terbium.

Even with MP Materials’ 200 tons of SEG, even with Lynas’ upgrades, even with Iluka’s refinery, the heavy rare earth bottleneck remains years away from resolution. The U.S. can build magnets. But without heavies, it cannot build enough.

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